Four new UFC fights were announced today, with the most notable one being a lightweight bout between Edson Barboza and Rafaello Oliveira, which is set to take place at UFC 162. Oliveira is a short-notice replacement for an injured John Makdessi, and he takes the fight on short notice coming off a long layoff as he hasn’t fought since UFC 148 last July, which means he will have been off exactly one year when he steps into the cage with Barboza. While Oliveira is a dangerous fighter on the ground, I think this is a terrible matchup for him since Oliveira doesn’t possess the wrestling that Jamie Varner — the only man to defeat Barboza in his career thus far — does and I can’t see him getting Barboza to the ground. And with the fight likely to take place in the standup, it seems likely that Barboza is going to land one of his highlight-reel kicks on Oliveira’s head and knock him out. Expect the line for Barboza to be somewhere around -500 and the comeback on Oliveira around +400, but the public may very well bet Barboza up even higher. Magalhaes vs. Perosh, Watson vs. Leities On Tap For UFC 163 The second fight is light heavyweight bout between Vinny Magalhaes and Anthony Perosh, which will take place this summer at UFC 163. The fight was reported by TATAME.com and sources have since confirmed to MMAoddsbreaker.com that it will indeed take place this August in Magalhaes’ hometown of Rio de Janeiro. This is an interesting fight since Magalhaes and Perosh are two of the best ground fighters in the UFC light heavyweight division but Magalhaes is 13 years younger than the 41-year-old Perosh and definitely has the edge in the stand-up. I would expect Magalhaes to open around -250 with the comeback on Perosh being around +200. And the second fight announced for the UFC 163 card is a middleweight bout between Tom Watson and Thales Leites, who is returning to the UFC after a multi-year absence. The fight was first reported by TATAME.com and subsequently confirmed by MMAjunkie.com. Again, a very interesting matchup because while many underrate Leites, he’s actually a decent fighter and he deserves to fight in the UFC. While Watson is riding high after his KO win over Stanislav Nedkov earlier this year, he’s no lock to win this fight by any means. Still, the public hype is behind Watson right now and I think he’ll open around -250 with the comeback on Leites being +200. Palelei and Krylov Meet At UFC 164 The final bout announced today is a heavyweight bout between Soa Palelei and UFC newcomer Nikita Krylov, which takes place at UFC 164 this August. Palelei was supposed to fight Stipe Miocic at UFC 161 but was pulled from the card in favor of Roy Nelson and now gets what may be an easier matchup in his return to the UFC. No one knows much about Krylov but he’s 14-0 in his career and obviously the UFC sees the potential in him. That being said, Palelei is a beast and has the Octagon experience, so it’s hard to say who should be favored when one punch from either guy could end it. I’d guess the line may open up around a Pick ’em but the public is likely to bet on Palelei, who is a big hit amongst MMA fans, and if Krylov gets to plus money, he may be worth a blind bet as an unknown heavyweight underdog. Either way, this fight is not going three rounds.
