Prior to each UFC fight card, Jay Primetown takes a look at some of the key contests at each event. In the latest installment, we look at a main card fight at UFC Fight Night 104 as Abel Trujillo and James Vick clash in Houston, Texas. Abel Trujillo (Record: 15-6, -105 Underdog, Power Ranking: C-) The North Carolina born and Blackzilians-trained fighter has been on his best run in the UFC. He’s won three fights in a row in the promotion and five of his last six overall. He fought twice in 2016, defeating Tony Sims by guillotine and Jordan Rinaldi by decision. Despite being just 5-foot-8, Trujillo is one of the most physically imposing fighters in the division. He’s a top-heavy, muscular fighter with some of the heaviest hands in the division. He’s earned three of his six victories inside the Octagon by knockout or TKO. Trujillo is not necessarily the most accurate striker at 43 percent of strikes landed, but he’s an athletic fighter whom if he finds his range can certainly finisher. In terms of the grappling, he’s a former NAIA All-American wrestler. He’s averaged 2.59 takedowns per 15 minutes in the Octagon, however, he’s only secured takedowns in two of his last five fights. When he utilizes his wrestling game, he’s had some success, but in some fights he prefers to be in a fire fight. The mental side of the game has been an issue for Trujillo. He doesn’t always fight smart (chooses to strike vs. wrestle) and it has cost him in some bouts. Conditioning has long been a question mark for him. His muscular physique lends itself to short athletic bursts and not a prolonged attack. After a fast-paced start, he will usually slow down dramatically by the final round. James Vick (Record: 9-1, -115 Favorite, Power Ranking: C-) The Texecutioner had been riding a nine-fight win streak prior to his biggest fight to date when he faced Beneil Dariush in 2016. Vick was floored by a punch for the first loss of his career. This is his first fight back in the Octagon since that knockout. The Lloyd Irvin product got his start in the UFC on the live season of The Ultimate Fighter. Vick won three fights in the competition, before losing in the semifinal to current Top 10 lightweight Michael Chiesa. Vick has suffered a bit from the injury bug, fighting just five times over the last three years. When he has been able to stay healthy, he’s put on solid performances. Vick is one of the biggest fighters in the weight class, standing 6-3 with a 76-inch reach. Vick has shown a willingness to stand at range and fire off a stinging jab. That’s his best strike on the feet and can keep fighters at distance. Vick does suffer from tall man defense. He doesn’t move his head much at all, making him an easy target for fighters who are able to cut the distance. In his last fight, Dariush did well to get inside and land big strikes to put Vick away. Vick’s potential will be limited until he improves his defense. Vick does have an underrated submission game with two submissions in the UFC. His guillotine choke is very good, and he’s able to latch it in without much setup. Off his back, he also has a formidable guard and is capable of submissions from that position as well. Vick is an action fighter that is generally on the attack, but by doing so leaves himself open defensively. Matchup This is an exciting matchup between two lightweights that are more focused on their offensive gifts than their defensive efficiencies. Vick has a major size advantage in this bout, with seven-inch height and six-inch reach advantages. Vick should have some success with his jab in this bout, but just how long will he be able to keep Trujillo at bay? Trujillo has heavy hands and certainly has the capability of being able to floor Vick with one punch. The Texecutioner is coming off a violent knockout loss to Dariush, so one has to wonder if he’ll be able to take the same level of damage that he was able to take before that fight. On the flip side, Trujillo has been submitted four times in his career. It has been an area opponents have been able to exploit, especially as he’s gotten tired. Given the defensive faults of both fighters, it’s dangerous to bet on a winner in this fight, as both are capable of being finished. The better bet is on the total. At +145, I see value on the Under because both fighters are capable finishers. Once the fight doesn’t go the distance prop is released, that is a line worth consideration as well.
