Former UFC lightweight champion Frankie Edgar returns to the Octagon this summer when he takes on ground ace Charles Oliveira in a main card bout at UFC 162. The current betting line for the fight at Several Bookmakers sees Edgar as a -435 favorite (bet $435 to win $100), while Oliveira is a +325 underdog (bet $100 to win $325). To me, this line is off, and I don’t mean it in the sense that Edgar’s line is too high. I mean it in the sense that his line is too low. I believe that Edgar should actually be a -600 favorite, which means that there is still value on betting him at the high price of -435. Oliveira is definitely a talented youngster who is able to unleash some of the slickest submissions you’ll ever see inside the cage. But against Edgar, how is he going to be able to get this fight to the ground in order to do so? Edgar was already an amazing wrestler at 155 pounds and at 145 pounds I think it’s going to be almost impossible to take him down. So unless Edgar himself foolishly tries to take Oliveira to the mat in order to score takedown points and/or land ground and pound (or go for a submission of his own), this fight is staying on the feet and that’s Edgar’s realm. Edgar is one of the best boxers in the UFC, and definitely the best in the featherweight division. Sure, he might not have that vicious one-punch knockout power, but he moves extremely well around his opponents and is able to pepper them with jabs and straight rights in order to pick up points. He also has a very solid chin so he’s able to stand in the pocket an trade shots with the best of the best as he’s proven in his fights against Benson Henderson, BJ Penn, Jose Aldo and Gray Maynard. Against Oliveira, Edgar is going to have a massive edge in the stand-up and although Edgar isn’t known as a one-punch knockout artist, he does have power and he definitely has the capabilities of finishing Oliveira with strikes at UFC 162. And, even though the fight is a month away, Edgar via T/KO is going to be my official prediction since Oliveira has been known to quit in some of his fights when he starts getting punched very hard in the face. I’m not a huge fan of betting heavy-juiced favorites but this is one instance where I’m very confident in the big chalk going in. At -435, I will be looking to parlay Edgar with someone else from the card (likely UFC middleweight champion Anderson Silva) and I’ll also be looking at the T/KO prop when it comes out as that prop is likely to be available at +300 and possibly higher since the consensus opinion among the public is that Edgar will take this fight with Oliveira to decision. I also believe there is value in betting the UNDER 2.5 rounds total at -120 because I see a finish either way. Look for Edgar to get back on his winning ways against Oliveira as he looks to earn his rematch with Aldo, and look for him to do so in devastating fashion.
