UFC on FOX 22: VanZant vs Waterson Date: December 17, 2016 Arena: Golden 1 Center City: Sacramento, CA The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to Sacramento, CA for the fifth time in promotional history with UFC on FOX 22: VanZant vs Waterson. The 13 fight card is set to kick off with Fight Pass prelims at 3:30pm ET, and prelminary action will continue on FOX Sports 1 at 5pm. The main card will be live on FOX at 8pm. If interested in wagering on any bouts for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakers. My Over/Under Totals are: Light Heavyweight bout: Luis Henrique da Silva (-225) vs Paul Craig (+185) Gabe’s Thoughts: The Brazilian last saw action at UFC Fight Night 96 a coupe of months ago, where he picked up a second round armbar submission win over Joachim Christensen, making it three straight wins for himself inside the Octagon. He will aim to make it four in a row heading into this bout against promotional newcomer Craig. The Scottish light heayweight makes his UFC debut following a year-long layoff and rides owns an undefeated professional mixed martial arts record of 8-0, with seven of them coming by way of first round finish, and just one in under a minute into the second round. Both of these 205-pounders are finishers and I do expect a finish here, most likelly an early one. I think there is a good chance that da Silva puts Craig away early, and I would not be surprised to see Craig put him away either, though it is less likely, as the Brazilian is a tough out. If this fight makes it out of the opening stanza, I think Craig will be a faded fighter starting the second round and the Brazilian will be able to put him away within half the stanza. I like da Silva here at -225 but I think the Total of Under 1.5 rounds at -115 holds more value, so that will be my play. Gabe’s Call: da Silva by T/KO (punches, 1:21 round 2) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Under 1.5 rounds (-115) 2.3u to win 2u Women’s Bantamweight bout: Irene Aldana (-310) vs Leslie Smith (+255) Gabe’s Thoughts: Aldana makes her Octagon debut taking on Smith and I believe she is the superior fighter of the two heading into this women’s 135-pound contest. She will also have a size and strength advantage over Smith. Smith is tough and I see her hanging in there, but I think Aldana cruises to a unanimous decision victory in this one. I do agree with her current offering price of -310 and see no value on either fighter for a wager here, however I do like a shot at the Total of Over 2.5 rounds at -175, as I think this fight hits the judges’ scorecards for a decision more often than not. Gabe’s Call: Aldana by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Under 2.5 rounds (-175) 1.75u to win 1u
