UFC Fight Night 100: Bader vs Nogueira II Date: November 19, 2016 Arena: Ibirapuera Gymnasium City: Sao Paulo, Brazil The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) heads to Sau Paolo, Brazil for the fifth time in promotional history with UFC Fight Night 100: Bader vs Nogueira II. The 12-fight main card will get going with UFC Fight Pass prelims at 6pm ET, directly following the preceding UFC Fight Night 99 broadcast from Belfast. Preliminary action will then continue on FOX Sports 1 at 7pm and culminating with the main card on the same channel at 9pm. If interested in wagering on any bouts for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakers. My Fights to AVOID betting are: Women’s Strawweight bout: Claudia Gadelha (-450) vs Cortney Casey (+360) Gabe’s Thoughts: Putting it simply, I think Gadelha should be a 3-to-1 betting favorite heading into this 115-pound contest. I don’t see any value in her at her current offering price of -450, so I will have to avoid making a play on her. I do think Casey holds a tiny bit of value at +360, but I won’t bite. I think this is a scrap we are best off avoiding at the sportsbook this weekend. Gabe’s Call: Gadelha by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID Welterweight bout: Sergio Moraes (-165) vs Zak Ottow (+145) Gabe’s Thoughts: Moraes is coming off a Draw to Ruan Chagas and is undefeated since his promotional debut, where he lost a narrow decision to Cezar “Mutante” Ferreira, who is also competing on this fight card. Ottow is coming off a unanimous decision victory over Josh Burkman in what was his short notice UFC debut, and he will aim to make it two straight inside the Octagon by taking out the Brazilian in Brazilian territory. I think Moraes should be favored a -170 betting favorite heading into this 170-pound contest, so I am in complete agreement with the betting odds here and ultimately see no value for a play on either side, which means I’ll have to avoid playing this one at the sportsbook come Saturday night. Gabe’s Call: Moraes by Submission (armbar, 2:04 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID
