UFC 204 Date: October 8, 2016 Arena: Manchester Arena City: Manchester, England The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) heads back to Mancheste, England for the fourth time in promotional history with UFC 204: Bisping vs Henderson II. The 12-fight card is set to kick off preliminary action on UFC Fight Pass at 6:30pm and will continue on FOX Sports 1 at 8pm. Main card action will be live on Pay Per View at 10pm. If interested in wagering on these plays, or any plays for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakers. Here are my live dogs: Lightweight bout: Adriano Martins (-220) vs Leonardo Santos (+180) Gabe’s Thoughts: This is a Brazilian vs Brazilian match-up in England, which doesn’t make much sense, but let’s not get lost in that. To get to the point, I think the betting odds for this 155-pound contest should be closer than they currently are, which means I see value in Santos at +180. He is the superior Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioner of the two here, and though he may be at a striking disadvantage, he is cosntantly improving on the feet, as was evident of his knockout of Kevin Lee at 194 last December. I have been leaning back and forth as to who will get his hand raised, but at the moment I slightly favor Santos to pull it off. At +180, I think he is the ride side for a play here. Gabe’s Call: Santos by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Santos (+180) 1u to win 1.8u Lightweight bout: Lukasz Sajewski (+185) vs Marc Diakiese (-225) Gabe’s Thoughts: Diakiese has a lot of hype behind him coming into this match-up, and don’t get me wrong, it is well deserved. However, as far as the betting lines are concerned, I think he is being over-valued. I think this fight is much closer than the betting odds indicate and feel Sajewski has a legitimate chance of pulling off the upset and silencing the English crowd. I think the Pole is being under-rated and see this as being a coin-flip match-up. At +185, I will side with him for the value. Gabe’s Call: Sajewski by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Sajewski (+185) 1u to win 1.85u
