One of the main card bouts at UFC Fight Night 69 is a three-round welterweight bout between Peter Sobotta and Steven Kennedy. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Sobotta is a -250 favorite (bet $250 to win $100) while Kennedy is a +210 underdog (bet $100 to win $210). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up Sobotta at -230 and Kennedy at +170, and some action has come in on the hometown favorite Sobotta so far. I favor Sobotta to get his hand raised here and understand why the line is the way it is. Here’s why. Sobotta (14-4-1) is in his second stint with the UFC. In his first stint, the 28-year-old Polish-German fighter lost three-straight decisions to James Wilks, Amir Sadollah and Paul Taylor and was cut. However, he went 5-0-1 on the European regional circuit to earn another shot in the big show and in his return to the Octagon defeated Pawel Pawlak via dominant decision at last year’s UFC Germany card. He was very impressive in that fight, showing off some improved wrestling, and won as a big underdog. A BJJ black belt, Sobotta has nine career wins by tapout which shows how dangerous he is on the mat, but he also has some underrated striking to go along with it. He’s improved quite a bit over the years, and the UFC clearly likes him to become one of their stars in Germany. He was set to fight Sergio Moraes in what would have been a really good grappling matchup, but after Moraes pulled out he now takes on short-notice replacement Kennedy in a fight that stylistically favors Sobotta, which is why you see him as a big favorite. Kennedy (22-6) is one of the most experienced fighters coming out of Australia. At 32 years of age, it took Kennedy a while to get to the UFC but now that he’s here I expect him to make the most of the opportunity. He is coming off of seven-straight wins and just fought a few months ago, so although he is taking this fight on short notice he should still be in decent shape. He’s a dangerous fighter both on the feet and on the ground, having won eight fights by knockout and nine by submission. However, he has been feasting on low-level regional opponents and the only good fighter he ever fought, Jesse Taylor, tapped him out in the first round, and that’s scary going up against a guy like Sobotta. Kennedy might be a guy who wins some fights on the UFC’s cards in Australia, but it seems pretty clear he’s being brought in here to lose to the hometown fighter in Sobotta, and outside of landing a big punch it’s hard to imagine him winning this fight, which is why he’s a big underdog heading into it. I was very impressed with Sobotta in his last fight and I think he should get through Kennedy rather easily. Kennedy is taking this fight on very short notice and has to go into Sobotta’s backyard to fight him. It’s just a bad situation for the Australian fighter, although I do think he has some skill and may stick around the UFC for a few fights. But Sobotta, to me, is a far better fighter. I think his grappling is very good, and believe he should be able to take Kennedy down and win a dominant decision or possibly get a submission. I think Sobotta is one of the more likely winners on the card and I do see some value in the line, so he’s going to be someone I put into a parlay this weekend for sure.
