By @fightnomics In fantasy MMA there’s no more valuable a rule than “bang for your buck.” Fighters who manage to score lots of knockouts or submissions normally come at a premium, so the trick is to hunt for finishing potential in fighters that are reasonably priced. To rack up big points, you need winners and finishers. The other helpful factor is the betting line, because heavy favorites do indeed tend to win quite often. But you can’t just load up your roster with favorites; you’ll need to make some value picks on underdogs or pick ‘ems to stay within the salary cap. So in order to win your pool, you’ll need winners, finishers…plus maybe an upset. And if you can’t find an upset, at least take an underdog with the potential to put up some points and avoid getting finished. We first need to separate the favorites and underdogs by their value, so here are a few recommendations for UFC 188, where there are a lot of tricky matchups. Likely Winners and/or Finishers Johnny Case may not be a household name yet, but he’s a big and deserving favorite over local opponent Francisco Trevino. Despite being the visiting fighter, all signs point to Case having a dominant showing. At $5,200 Case is a good addition who should put up early finish points. Tecia Torres may not be much of a finishing threat, but she’s undefeated in professional bouts and has also faced top-tier talent. Her opponent is simply moving up in competition way too fast. Priced at $5,400, Torres is safe for a win and could even get a finish on the ground with a submission. Bargain Favorites and Fliers Gilbert Melendez is a slight favorite against a live underdog in Eddie Alvarez. This fight is very likely to go to a decision, but Melendez will post a lot of points along the way thanks to a high-paced striking attack. At just $4,800 he should get the decision win bonus padded with lots of action over three rounds, and he’ll leave salary cap room for some bigger favorites. Nate Marquardt was working his way towards a UFC title shot before getting derailed by knockout losses to heavy-handed strikers. He’s since moved back to Middleweight, and is on the cusp of fighting for his job in the UFC. Yet Marquardt remains one of the most skilled fighters in any division, boasting technical and powerful striking, and very dangerous submissions. But he’s been outworked lately and is facing another grinder, so Marquardt’s only chance to win is by a finish. At $4,500, he’s a flier that could allow a team to take more favorites and still return big points if he gets aggressive and fights up to his potential. Just Too Pricey The main event has steep odds that favor legacy champion Cain Velasquez, and he’s most likely to win with a TKO finish. But his price of $5,800 is just too much to afford and still field a reasonable team. There’s also the possibility that as he shakes off the ring rust, he might get caught with something from Werdum, either on the feet or standing. Alejandro Perez is favored over Patrick Williams, but will have to overcome the biggest reach differential on the entire card at six inches, as well as the defensive wrestling of Williams. At $5,300, that’s a stiff price for a fighter that might be a hole after round 1. Perez could overtake the fight as the elevation takes a toll on Williams, but there’s a lot of risk here and it makes the price tough to digest. That also means that Williams at $4,300 could post the upset while leaving tons of cap space. Disagree? Good! Take a crack at Tommy Toe Hold’s latest pool for a chance at $10,000 in prize money! Or for the not so high rollers who still want action at a big prize, check out the $5 game with $5,000 in prizes. Don’t forget to check the “Fightnomics” book to learn all about MMA metrics.