The main event of Invicta FC 10 is a five-round title fight between Invicta FC atomweight champion Michelle Waterson and challenger Herica Tiburcio. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Waterson is a -600 favorite (bet $600 to win $100) while Tiburcio is a +400 underdog (bet $100 to win $400). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened Waterson at -600 and Tiburcio at +400, and there has been no line movement since the opener. I agree with Waterson being a big favorite as I believe she is a very likely winner this weekend. Here’s why. Waterson (12-3) is the Invcita FC atomweight champion and the best fighter at her weight class in the world. The 28-year-old American trains at Jackson-Wink MMA and over the course of her seven-year pro MMA career has evolved her game to an extremely high level. Nicknamed “The Karate Hottie,” Waterson came from a striking background and it shows in her bouts, as she constantly delivers and lands brutal kicks to soften her opponents up. And on the ground, she’s exceptional as well, capable of submitting opponents from a variety of different positions. Waterson is currently riding a six-fight win streak that includes three wins in Invicta FC and five of six victories by way of stoppage, including an armbar on TUF 20 contestant Jessica Penne that won her the Invicta FC atomweight title. She seems to have taken her game to another level judging by her beatdown against Yasuko Tamada in her last outing, and is deservingly a high favorite entering this fight against Tiburcio. Tiburcio (8-2) is one of the top prospects at 105lbs. She is currently riding a three-fight win streak and her only two career losses came by decision, one to another top prospect in Claudia Gadelha. Tiburcio is primarily a submission-based fighter who has won six career bouts by tapout. However, her striking seems like it could use some work. I think she has a bright future in this sport, but how does she get this fight to the ground against Waterson? I don’t she has the wrestling to make it competitive, and on the feet it will be a whole other world for her. Tiburcio could possibly steal a round here if she somehow gets a takedown, but that’s it. It just seems like a really difficult fight for her in her Invicta FC debut, and not surprisingly she enters the fight as a big-time underdog, and rightfully so as her winning would be a big upset. I really don’t see this fight being competitive at all. Although Tiburcio is talented, she is extremely green in the sport and she is facing one of the best in Waterson. I think Waterson is going to light Tiburcio up on the feet with her kicks and eventually get a TKO finish late in the fight to retain her Invicta FC atomweight championship. -600 is a steep line but to be honest, I thought Waterson would be -1000 here, so I see value in her as a favorite. Play Waterson in parlays this weekend to boost your potential earnings as she is one of the most likely winners of the entire weekend.
