Cain Velasquez vs Antonio Silva - UFC 160 Statistical Analysis and PickUFC 160 Saturday, May 25, 2013 Heavyweight Championship: Cain Velasquez vs. Antonio Silva Big Picture: If this looks familiar, it’s because not quite one year ago Cain Velasquez painted the Octagon red at UFC 146 with the blood from Antonio Silva’s head. But Bigfoot Silva has also done the improbable to get back here. After being a mild underdog against Travis Browne (+190), then a big underdog against Alistair Overeem (+390), Silva is now a huge underdog in his rematch with Velasquez (+550). Despite a two-fight win streak and a win over one of the greatest heavyweights of all time in Fedor Emelianenko, we all seem to still be ignoring the existence of Bigfoot. So let’s look at the stat line and see if that’s justified. Summary Stats: Fight Prediction: It may not be the answer promoters want to hear, but this fight should strongly resemble the first. Cain Velasquez can take and win this fight anywhere, and he has the stamina to do it round after round. But given how powerful he is, the end should come much sooner than the championship rounds. Velasquez may play with the stand up a bit, but eventually he’ll put Silva on his back and work ground and pound as the safer path to victory. Though it’s possible that barring the nasty cut at UFC 146 Silva might have lasted much longer than just three and half minutes, the trickiest question will be when the finish will come this time. The longer the fight goes, the more lopsided it will be. Reed’s Pick: Velasquez by TKO (click for latest MMA odds) Reed’s Recommended Play: At -800, there’s not a lot of value in a straight bet on Velasquez. If anything that number could go higher. The over under at one and half rounds is a tough one to call, it’s not a lot of time to work with if Velasquez chooses to be careful, which would be warranted with the belt on the line. The better play here is to use Velasquez inside the distance at -475 in parlays to boost the value of other picks.
Tags: ufc odds, ufc, ufc betting, ufc preview, ufc picks, cain velasquez, UFC 160, ufc 160 betting, ufc 160 odds, ufc 160 picks, ufc 160 preview, antonio silva, UFC Stats & Analytics with Reed Kuhn, ufc stats, ufc 160 stats
About the Author
Dropping science in the cage with UFC statistics & analytics. Quantifying underlying drivers of the fight game, and ending barroom disputes everywhere.
More articles from this author
- The Strikeforce Effect: Are We Underestimating Crossover Fighters? - Part 1
- UFC 159: Roy Nelson vs. Cheick Kongo - Statistical Fight Picks With Reed Kuhn
- UFC 159: Jon Jones vs. Chael Sonnen – Statistical Fight Picks With Reed Kuhn
- The Strikeforce Effect: Part 2
- Rafael dos Anjos vs. Evan Dunham - UFC on FX 8 Statistical Analysis and Pick