MMA Odds Breakdown: TUF 15 Mike Rio vs. Andy Ogle
The Ultimate Fighter: Live has proven to be tricky when it comes to wagering. Through the first seven quarterfinal fights, a trend seems to have been formed with many of the larger favorites getting upset while the smaller ones pick up wins. I can't help but feel this is about to change though, as -475 betting favorite and Team Cruz member Mike Rio takes on Team Faber's +325 underdog Andy Ogle in the last quarterfinal that will be televised live as part of this Friday’s episode at 10 p.m. (ET) on FX.
Rio enters this bout with a professional record of 8-1 and a decorated wrestling background. Expectedly, he's a ground specialist with solid takedowns, but he has added a slick submission game to his arsenal. He showed off these skills in his fight to get into the TUF house against Ali Maclean. Early on in that bout, the limitations in the striking of "Wolverine" were exposed, but he intelligently took Maclean down and won by first-round rear-naked choke submission.
Like Rio, Ogle is also a ground fighter with limited stand-up who has won eight of his nine mixed martial arts bouts. He fought Brendan Weafer to gain entry into the competition and won what many felt was a poor decision by the judges. Ogle immediately took Weafer down but got caught in a triangle choke. He spent almost the entire round surviving the submission before going for a guillotine attempt in the last 30 seconds. Somehow, the judges awarded him a unanimous verdict after the one-and-only round of the fight expired.
The two fighters are almost mirror images of each other, except Rio is better at just about everything, especially where their strengths lie with grappling. Not only was Ogle out-grappled in his first fight of the season, but he's shown major liabilities on the mat in his prior fights. In addition, while Ogle's good with trips from the clinch, his overall wrestling game leaves a lot to be desired. Poor positional grappling and wrestling fundamentals will likely be his downfall against a fighter with the takedowns and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu of Rio, who shouldn't have much trouble securing a double-leg takedown.
Before this season even began, I pegged Rio to go far in the tournament, and he should take one more step toward meeting those expectations on Friday. He may have trouble against superior wrestlers who can stuff his takedowns and win the striking battle, or grind him out from top position, but I doubt Ogle will be able to do either. This fight might start out as a sloppy brawl, but eventually Rio should score an easy takedown before latching on a fight-ending submission. The -475 betting line on Rio may be steep, but I would be quite surprised if he didn't find a way to win and can't help but recommend a wager on him.
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