By @fightnomics The long-awaited UFC 189 card has come with some last-minute twists, but the card overall remains very high-quality despite an “interim” title situation in the main event. But as usual, the competitors throwing down in Las Vegas on fight night come in all shapes, sizes, and specialties. And that means a pretty wide spread in terms of fighting styles. Since all fights start standing, it’s worth starting there. But we’ve already looked at striking accuracy at UFC 189, so now let’s see which fighters throw the most volume per minute while on their feet. This tells who likes to push the action, control the cage, and generally contribute to exciting striking exchanges. Scanning the card, we see some guys putting on a faster pace, while there are others who lag the pack. And in several cases, there are big stylistic mismatches between fighters that will certainly drive a more strategic battle for position.
For more on these and other MMA performance metrics, get the book “Fightnomics.” Best in Class Flyweight Louis Smolka has put on a blistering pace of 19 strikes per minute in his three UFC appearances to date. Facing the much older precision striker in Neil Seery, Smolka will hope to use his aggression to stifle the counters of his opponent. Pushing the Pace Leading the rest of the pack is none other than Conor McGregor, the fight card’s true star. On his dominant five-fight run to this title shot, McGregor’s striking has been phenomenal. He manages to be accurate and powerful, all while putting up a high pace. But he’s also relied heavily on his striking, and we haven’t seen much of his defensive wrestling. Still, while this fight remains standing, it’s McGregor who will have the advantage. Dennis Bermudez has demonstrated excellent wrestling to date, but he’s also pretty aggressive with his hands. That’s partly because one can help set up the other, as long as he’s moving forward. He’s facing a more reserved, but definitely dangerous striker in Stephens, in what will be another positional battle on the card. Thomas Almeida has risen to be far and away the biggest betting favorite on the card, at 10-to-1 odds over Brad Pickett. Almeida has earned two bonuses in his 2-0 UFC run so far, and his matchup with the equally high-paced Pickett could turn into a barnburner. Not only do both men average high output, they tend to match pace with their opponents, meaning things could escalate as neither wishes to back down. Almeida gets the edge in precision, but also tends to eat more punches. And perhaps the most important difference is the 13-year Youth Advantage favoring Almeida. This fight should be fun to watch. Matt Brown is famous for his heart and gritty fighter’s aggression. He’s also managed to keep up his output while also landing some devastating blows that have dropped opponents seven times in the UFC. He’ll have a slight advantage over Tim Means in terms of pace and precision. Neil Seery is just above average in pace, but he’s much better with his accuracy. Expect him to be on the retreat from the more aggressive Smolka, but also look to see if Seery’s counters can cause damage. Average Pace Rory MacDonald’s pace may look average, but his overall striking game has looked better than ever since his knockout of Tarec Saffiedine. His pace is capable of maintaining into later rounds, and with high precision. His matchup with Lawler may lead chase all over the cage, but toe-to-toe, it will be a technician versus a masterful knockout artist in Lawler. Excellent co-main event! Alex Garcia has maintained an average pace in his 2-1 UFC start, but he’s shown above average power and accuracy. Facing veteran striker Mike Swick in his return from a long layoff presents a lot of uncertainty in this matchup, other than that there’s the potential for some fun striking exchanges. Just a Little Slow Means comes in a little below average, but seems to be improving his game. The bout with Matt Brown is a big step up and true test of whether Means is ready for primetime. Brown is slightly longer, more accurate and higher paced, but Means has shown decent defense to date, and ultimately neither man can afford to eat too much leather from the other. Mike Swick’s return to the Octagon after three years away presents plenty of doubt. While he has a number of “quick” finishes to his credit, we simply don’t know how he’ll be able to shake off the ring rust and compete at full speed against an aggressive opponent in Alex Garcia. Jeremy Stephens is one of several guys who lags in pace, and may be more of a counter-striker, but makes up for it with precision and loads of power. With eight knockdowns scored to date, he’s second only to Lawler on this card in that metric. So perhaps the aggressiveness of Bermudez coming forward could work to his advantage. Though Brandon Thatch may have lagged pace overall, he’ll definitely be the more aggressive striker in his matchup with Gunnar Nelson. Thatch is a beast, with plenty of knockout power, so he will be the one likely chasing his opponent around the cage. Robbie Lawler’s first title defense will see him as a rare betting underdog against a challenger. But Lawler’s striking has evolved significantly over the years. Finally peaking at Welterweight, there’s no doubting the power in his hands. While we should expect Lawler circling the ring with MacDonald, his pace could play a key role in who gets the edge round-to-round in such a close matchup. Cathal Pendred and John Howard on paper are very similar, more grinding than flash. But there are still some differences in their striking, specifically Howard has shown better power while Pendred uses a higher pace and more aggression. Hesitant Striker (aka, Ground Specialists) Chad Mendes is at a huge reach disadvantage in his matchup with McGregor, but that’s not much different than many of his prior fights. Mendes certainly can’t control longer fighters on the feet, but his precision is good, his power is excellent, and when he moves forward he’s often throwing takedown attempts instead of strikes. So regardless of his low pace, there’s still a stylistic chess match brewing in the main event at UFC 189, and McGregor cannot ignore the strikes of Mendes. Gunnar Nelson brings up the rear with one of the slowest striking paces in the UFC. His very pronounced Karate-style stance is combined with high precision, but is too reserved to command the cage or win rounds on action. Against Thatch, Nelson’s best strategy is to utilize his ground game and to look for submissions. For information on getting the “Fightnomics” the book, go here. 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