Prop Plays for UFC Fight Night 65 in AustraliaUFC Fight Night 65 Date: May 9, 2015 Arena: Adelaide Entertainment Centre City: Adelaide, South Australia, Australia The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to Australia tonight with UFC Fight Night 65: Miocic vs Hunt. The event will feature an entirety of 12-bouts, all live on UFC Fight Pass. Preliminary action will get going at 7:45pm ET with eight bouts, and the four-fight main card will get underway at 11pm ET. If interested in wagering on these props, all lines will be made available at 5Dimes Sportsbooks. Here are my prop plays for UFC 186: Mark Hunt (+200) vs Stipe Miocic (-220) Miocic by Unanimous Decision (+425) 1u to win 4.25u Not Miocic ITD (-119) 1.19u to win 1u Hunt in Round Three (+1325) .25u to win 3.31u I think the most likely outcome to this match-up is Miocic using technical boxing and possibly mixing in takedowns over the course of 25 minutes of action to pick up a unanimous decision on the judges' scorecards. Brad Tavares (-130) vs Robert Whittaker (+120) Fight Goes to Decision (-145) 1.45u to win 1u This is a scrap I figure goes all three rounds more often than not. I favor Tavares to pick up the nod, but I'd rather play the Goes to Decision prop at -145 rather than Tavares by Decision at +145. That's a safer play, in case Whittaker picks up a hometown decision. Anthony Perosh (-140) vs Sean O'Connell (+130) O'Connell by T/KO (+245) 1u to win 2.45u O'Connell in Round One (+400) 1u to win 4u O'Connell by Decision (+550) .5u to win 2.75u I like O'Connell in this match-up and I think there is a good chance he ends this fight on the feet, likely within the first five minutes of action. If it hits the scorecards, I favor him to pick up the nod, as I think he will be able to keep the fight on the feet to outstrike Perosh for at least two out of three rounds. That said, I would not be surprised to see him mix in takedowns and use his ground and pound. Jake Matthews (-170) vs James Vick (+160) Fight Goes to Decision (-155) 1.55u to win 1u Not Mathews ITD (-275) 2.75u to win 1u Vick ITD (+500) .5u to win 2.5u I think the most likely outcome to this 155-pound contest is Vick winning on the scorecards, and while I don't see value in Vick by Decision at +250 ('cos it's safer to take him straight-up at +160), I do like these three props for this bout. If this fight ends inside the distance, I think it will be Vick getting the finish much more often than not. Matthews could pick up the win on the cards, but contrary to popular opinion, I don't think he has a very good chance at finishing Vick. I would not be blown away if it happened, I just think it's a very slim chance and there's value in betting against it at -275. Brad Scott (-105) vs Dylan Andrews (-105) Scott by Decision (+350) 1u to win 3.5u Putting it simply, I think this is the most likely outcome to this middleweight match-up. Daniel Kelly (+355) vs Sam Alvey (-400) Alvey ITD (-145) 1.45u to win 1u Alvey by Submission (+729) .35u to win 2.55u I think the most likely outcome to this 185-pound affair is with Alvey winning by T/KO, however I could see him managing to submit Kelly if the fight were to hit the mat. At +729, I think the prop is worth a stab, and while I favor the T/KO, I am taking the ITD prop at -145, as it is a lot safer than playing the T/KO prop at -140. Brendan O'Reilly (-105) vs Vik Grujic (-115) Fight Goes to Decision (-110) 1.1u to win 1u Grujic by Decision (+200) 1u to win 2u This is a welterweight contest I think would play out for all three rounds of action for a judges' decision much more often than not. Getting his hand raised much more often than not, I think would be Grujic.
About the Author
Gabe Killian is a mixed martial arts journalist and handicapper, as well as a stand-up comedian and writer.