UFC Fight Night 66 May 16th, 2015 Middleweight Matchup: Luke Barnatt vs Mark Munoz By @fightnomics The UFC’s first appearance in the new market of the Philippines will coincide with the final UFC appearance of “The Filipino Wrecking Machine,” Mark Munoz. Munoz has only one win since 2011, and three first-round losses since. He’s also struggled with issues outside the cage, leading many to wonder how long he could hold on to a roster spot. But the UFC’s interest in the Philippines gives Munoz one last opportunity to compete in the Octagon, and also provides him with the most motivation he’s had since he was a contender. But as we’ve seen plenty of times in recent events, matchmakers aren’t giving the home-cage hero an easy out. It will be opponent Luke Barnatt who enters as the slight favorite at -160, the underdog Munoz at +140. Those are close odds, and the combined 5-fight losing streak of the two men, as well as they’re very different fighting styles has the market torn. So let’s see how they stack up on the statline. Summary Stats:
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Tale of Tape Matchup: The traditional tale of the tape strongly favors the Englishman, Barnatt, who has a 10-year Youth Advantage and a sizable Reach Advantage. Not only is Barnett much younger, his recent losses were close decisions, and not the lopsided beatings that Munoz received. That makes Barnatt even younger in “fight years.” These advantages out of the gate are enough to justify Barnatt as a favorite, but let’s take a closer look at their performance metrics to understand the dueling styles in this matchup. Striking Matchup: The striking matchup presents very different strengths and weaknesses between the two. Munoz is obviously a wrestler first, but with time he was able to get quite comfortable with his striking. He was outclassed against power strikers like Chris Weidman and Lyoto Machida, who both made short work of Munoz, but he has demonstrated power of his own and a decent tradeoff between precision and evasion. The problem is that he’s not dangerous enough offensively to survive against a precise striker in the long run. With a Knockdown Defense rating of just 91%, each landed power head strike he eats has a 10% chance of flooring him. That’s how he’s been dropped 5 times already, far more than any other fighter on the card. And although his hands are pretty heavy, they just aren’t busy enough. Munoz only averages 6.9 strike attempts per minute while standing, not just the lowest of any fighter on the card, but less than half of the pace that Barnatt averages (16.9 attempts/minute). Barnatt’s blistering pace tends to outwork even higher-paced opponents than Munoz, and Barnatt manages to keep that pace up while maintaining higher than average power head strike accuracy. He pays for it to some extent by eating punches, but to date his chin has held up a little better than average for the division. Mixing in the range advantage for Barnatt, and it certainly seems like Brit should be the one winning rounds as long as it stays on the feet, and also has the higher potential to score a knockdown that would set up a finish. So now the question becomes: will it stay standing or end up on the ground? Grappling Matchup: Munoz’s NCAA Division 1 wrestling credentials certainly suggest that he’s comfortable on the mat. And when he’s on the mat, there’s much less of a chance he gets tagged on the chin. So it’s no surprise that Munoz attempts more than double the takedowns than average. But what is surprising is that his success rate is so low. That’s partially because opponents know his gameplan, and partially because he hasn’t set up his takedowns well, opting mainly to shoot from a distance which lowers the odds of converting the takedown. In fact, when Munoz shoots from a distance he only lands 12% of his takedown attempts, compared to triple success rate that when he’s in the clinch. Barnatt’s range advantage may help not just when the strikes are flying, but also in helping the fight stay in striking range. It also doesn’t hurt that Barnatt’s takedown defense is an impressive 82%, which is well above average. While he hasn’t fully been test by a wrestler of Munoz’s tenacity, Barnatt has at least survived on the mat before with decorated grapplers. The styles contrast simplifies this to a striker versus wrestler matchup, and Barnatt’s early ability to defend the takedown and keep Munoz on the end of punching distance will immediately clarify the likeliest outcome. Reed’s Pick: Barnatt to Win (Click for latest MMA odds) Reed’s Recommended Play: The current price of -160 for Barnatt is reasonable. The strongly favorable anthropometrics combined with a viable path to victory are worth a small play on Barnatt, or a parlay with another, larger favorite. There’s definitely risk in Munoz coming and trying to smother his opponent for three rounds, but he’ll be vulnerable as long as he’s not in top control. Even if Barnatt doesn’t get the knockout, he will still outpoint Munoz on volume as long as he can keep a sizable portion of the round on the feet. The Over of 1.5 rounds is currently -160, the Under at +140. That’s a low limit driven by Munoz’s fragile disposition, but so far the market is leaning towards the Over as the more likely outcome. The first round could be quite tentative as Munoz tests the takedown defense of Barnatt, who may in turn hold back with overcommitting on his strikes. That might mean stalling. But once things get going, there’s potential for a finish that could come quickly. The tight limit here is hard to play, so only consider prop angles of Barnatt by TKO if it you can get plus money, or a hedge on Munoz by Decision at a high plus value once the lines have diverged to their maximum range. For information on getting the “Fightnomics” the book, go here. Want to put your knowledge to the test in Fantasy MMA for cash? Use the code “FIGHTNOMICS” for an immediate 25% deposit bonus at Kountermove.