Dana White's Contender Series 11 Opening Odds Reactions


Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series 11 takes place Tuesday, June 26 at UFC Gym in Las Vegas, Nevada. The opening odds for the card were recently released by the offshore sportsbooks. Here they are:

Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series 11 Opening Odds

Antonina Shevchenko -300
Jaimelene Nievara +220

Austin Tweedy -165
Te Edwards +125

Greg Rebello -180
Josh Parisian +140

Jamall Emmers -150
Julian Erosa +110

Tim Caron -230
Jordan Williams +170

My initial thoughts on these lines are as follows:

- So far in the Contender Series it has mainly been favorites winning and I don't expect that to be much different in the main event, Antonina Shevchenko (sister of Valentina) makes her long-awaited Contender Series debut when she takes on Jaimelene Nievara in a flyweight bout. Shevchenko (5-0) is 2-0 since making a return to MMA in 2017. She's looking to make a run in MMA at age 33 after a solid Muay Thai career and there's no reason she can't make get there. Nievara (7-3) is also 33 and has been succesful as of late but obviously has a lot less hype surrounding her. She is currently riding a three-fight win streak in LFA and Gladiator Challenge and has previously fought for Bellator. I'd imagine the UFC would put Shevchenko in a position to succeed and I fully expect Shevchenko to win this fight. I feel like she will keep the fight standing and get the better of the exchanges and win a decision. The fact that Nievara took the fight on very short notice isn't going to help her against a world-championship caliber striker in Shevchenko.

- Tweedy (10-1) is 27 and is riding a seven-fight win streak at the moment. A product of American Top Team Indianapolis, Tweedy has seen all 10 of his professional wins come by stoppage including nine by submission. Edwards is a product of The MMA Lab and is coming off of four-straight knockout wins. Like Tweedy, Edwards is just 27 and has experience fighting in Bellator and RFA. This is a really good fight between two solid prospects, but I have to side with the grappler here in Tweedy, and I'll take him to get the sub.

- A heavyweight bout sees Rebello (24-8) return to try again on the Contender Series. The 36-year-old lost on the show last year to Azunna Anyanwu by strikes but has since rebounded by picking up two TKO wins in CES including a notable knockout win over Travis Wiuff in his last bout. Parisian (6-2) took the fight on very short notice but has nothing to lose. The 28-year-old is coming off of a knockout win in LFA and his only loss in the last three years came against 70-fight veteran Tony Lopez. Though most expect Rebello to get the knockout, I'd stay away from this one. I just don't trust his chin and it wouldn't surprise me to se Parisian score a big upset.

- Emmers (11-3) is 28 and he's riding a four-fight win streak into the Contender Series with a couple wins over some notable fighters in LFA. He is a well-rounded fighter with quite a bit of experience. Erosa (21-5) is 28 and he's entering the bout off of two-straight knockout wins. He's actually already fought in the UFC, where he beat Marcin Wrzosek, and he actually went 3-1 on TUF 22. He has a ton of finishes on his resume and all sorts of experience. A bit of a close one here but I kind of like Erosa as the dog here. I like the fact he has already fought in the UFC and I'm going to take him to pick up the upset here in a hard-fought decision win.

- Caron (9-1) is 30 and is coming off of two-staight wins including a slam KO in his last bout. All of his pro wins have come by stoppage and he even has some experience fighting in Bellator. Williams (7-2) is riding a two-fight win streak and just won a fight in Bellator in his last bout. The 27-year-old is a finisher with all of his wins coming by knockout and his only loss in the last four years came against new UFC fighter Dwight Grant. He took this fight on very short notice but just fought and won in Bellator last month so he should be in good shape. Caron had the full camp so I understand why he's favored but Williams is a very good prospect and motivated by his Diabetes and to be the first man signed to the UFC with the affliction. I would just pass on this one.

Tags: opening odds

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About the Author

Adam Martin

Mixed martial arts journalist. Lead writer for MMAOddsbreaker.com and also featured at @MMARatingsNet, @mmanews_com and @fightodds_io.

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