Big Marley’s UFC 225 DraftKings Fantasy Breakdown
If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
Significant Strikes +0.5 Pts
Advance +3 Pts
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts
We have a lot of money to be won this week on DraftKings for UFC 225, and I cannot wait to win some of it. There are several big contests available on DK this week and the biggest tournament has $25k up top. Personally, I will be playing less cash games than usual and chasing these big prizes. Also, DK released a new MMA Qualifier that you can read about under their Promos page, and I will be chasing that hard as well. Those Qualifiers are the “Ricky Bobby” contests where if you’re not 1st, you’re last, so be careful not to kill your bankroll chasing those. With that said, here are a few plays I like this weekend along with my fade of the week.
Cash Game play of the week – Colby Covington ($8,000)
I am picking Covington to win this fight but I do not hate stacking this fight in your cash lineups. If I were to use 1 stack in cash, I would prefer this fight over the main event. However, we have some line value on Colby now, with him sitting at -130 currently and RDA at +110. I always like using the line value in cash games and I think if you wanted to use Colby solo in cash games it is fine for that reason. The path to victory for Colby is the takedowns and I see him being successful with a handful of those. Takedowns are huge in DraftKings and Colby is the type of wrestler I like to target. I am not sure if I am stacking this week or not but I am confident that Colby will be in my cash lineup.
GPP play of the week – Tai Tuivasa ($9,300)
I think the power of Tuivasa will be too much for Arlovski and I see this ending in a KO. I think the KO could come in the 1st round, and if that happens Tuivasa will score over 100 points, and that is what I look for in my GPPs. Tuivasa is one of my favorite plays of the week and I expect him to be popular, but I am willing to eat that chalk and try to be overweight to the field in my GPP lineups. I expect Tuivasa to be ~40% owned in big tourneys so I would want more than 40% of my lineups to have him.
Underdog play of the week – Yoel Romero ($7,100)
I am picking Whittaker to win this fight but Whittaker is priced $2k higher than Yoel and that is why Yoel is my dog of the week. With Whittaker being priced at 9.1k, I want at least 91 points from him and the only way he makes that happen is with a KO. Yoel, on the other hand, can easily reach 10x his salary with a decision, but he could also finish the fight and score over 100 points. If that happens, he will be a must have and that is why I like him more as a DK play. Putting Yoel and his 7.1k in your lineup allows you to pay up for the favorites you like and that is why he is my underdog play of the week.
Fade of the week – Holly Holm ($8,900)
I am having a hard time seeing Holm getting 10x at her 8.9k price tag this week. Or any week. With Holm’s style, the only way she can reach 89 or higher is to get a finish. At +500, that finish from Holm isn’t very likely and I think she ends up scoring ~60 points in a win. If there are any takedowns in this fight they won’t be coming from Holly, and I expect Anderson to try to keep this fight against the cage as much as she can. If Anderson is holding Holm against the cage, or if Holm is dancing around the cage, points are not being scored during that time and that makes me have very little interest in this fight as a whole. However, with the salaries I think this is a dog or fade fight and you can afford a low score with Anderson and her 7.3k salary, but you can’t afford a low score with Holly and her 8.9k salary.