Big Marley’s UFC Fight Night 129 DraftKings Fantasy Breakdown


If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:


GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %


Scoring

Moves

Significant Strikes +0.5 Pts
Advance +3 Pts
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts

Fight Conclusion Bonuses

1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts

DraftKings lowered their contest sizes and prize amounts by a good bit this week but there is still $15k at the top of the big $8 tournament so that is where I will be personally chasing on Saturday night. I usually like to enter multiple different GPP contests but this week I will just make more lineups in the $8 and hope one of them hits the $15k. Here are a few plays I like this week in my lineups as well as my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Tatiana Suarez ($9,300)

This is the cash lock of the week. Even if she somehow loses, she is still the right play on paper and this is where you need to start your cash lineup. Suarez is the 3rd most expensive fighter on the card and she has the highest betting line on the card at -900. That is reason enough for her to be a cash lock. Another reason she is a cash lock is because I think you must have exposure to her and it might as well be in cash to block everybody else and take advantage of the fish who don’t have her. Also, she will be the most owned fighter in GPPs so if you are looking to gain an edge in the tournaments she won’t be the place to do it. Lock in your Suarez money in cash games and if you are multi-entering GPPs she should be in some of those LU’s as well. But, if you are mainly playing cash games and making 1 single GPP lineup, then I think the crazy ownership on Suarez in tournaments is worth fading and I would take the $8 shot elsewhere just to separate from the field.

GPP play of the week – Vicente Luque ($8,800)

Vicente Luque is always a solid DraftKings play and this week he should go under owned just because of the other high priced fighters on the card that should also do well. That is why he is my GPP play of the week. GPPs are all about ownership and if a guy with a high ceiling like Luque is going to be under owned then he is where we should target to separate ourselves from the field in these big tournaments. If Luque is going to win this fight, it is likely he uses his takedowns to get it done and he could get a finish on the ground. He also has a good stand up game and could get an early KO which also would pay off his price tag at 8.8k. As you will see by my next pick, I am not all in on him at all but in GPPs I think he should be a top target.

Underdog play of the week - Chad Laprise ($7,400)

Laprise isn’t my pick to win in this fight but if he does win he is likely to be on the winning tournament lineup. This is my favorite overall fight to target on the card and this is the spot to target if you are making 2 lineups. I would make 1 lineup with Laprise and 1 lineup with Luque and hope that it could hit 1st place. If this fight can stay standing, Laprise could get a late 1st round KO and that is always the ideal situation in GPPs so at 7.4k I have to have him in some lineups. in general, this is a great GPP fight to target and if I was making just 1 LU this week I think Laprise might be the dog I start with.

Fade of the week – Frankie Saenz ($9,100)

How do you pick Sanez over the people around him on this card? The only excuse I can make here is to be different than the field in GPPs but I don’t think this is the spot to do it. Saenz will have to get an early finish or heavily use his grappling game and score with takedowns to pay off his 9.1k price tag and I don’t see that happening. I think this is a fight that goes to decision and I see Saenz scoring ~70 points if he gets the win and at 9.1k I am looking for a score of at least 91 to get 10x and meet value. I am making 50 lineups this Saturday in the $8 contest and Saenz will not be in 1 single LU of mine. #Fade

Tags: fantasy mma, fantasy

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Kyle Marley

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