Big Marley’s UFC 224 Draft Kings Fantasy Breakdown
If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
Significant Strikes +0.5 Pts
Advance +3 Pts
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts
DraftKings put together some big prize pools this week and I am itching to chase a big prize after the break we had the last few weeks. Personally, I plan on playing 20 lineups this week and chasing that big $25,000 top prize in the $10 contest so I will be more focused on the GPPs than usual and playing less cash games. If you are building your bankroll and want to try out 20 lineups then the quarter arcade is always a good spot to start but the $1 jab this week has a $7,500 prize pool, so that is where I would recommend throwing your 20 lineups if you decide to go that route. Here are a few plays I like this week and one fighter I will have in 0 of my 20 lineups.
Cash Game play of the week – Amanda Nunes ($9,500)
Just lock in the win and move on. Nunes is as close to a lock as you will find on this card so she is the first person I am putting in my cash LU. I don’t see how Rocky can pull off a win here against Nunes who is better anywhere this fight ends up. She puts up the higher pace, hits harder, moves faster, and is just on a different level than Rocky. I think the current -1100 line is worthy and I will take that free spot in my cash LU even at a high price tag of 9.5k.
GPP play of the week – Mackenzie Dern ($9,100)
Mackenzie Dern should be fairly low owned and has a good chance at getting a submission here. I think Cooper will be one of the more popular underdogs on this slate because people will want Nunes in their LU’s so they need to find low priced underdogs and Cooper scored 122 DK points in her last fight against Magana. Because so many people will pay up for Nunes, and I believe Perez will be pretty popular as well at 9.2k, it will leave Dern with low ownership. With a fighter like Dern you know she wants the fight on the ground and that is where DK points add up. If Dern can score the highest on the card and you can get her at 15% ownership in tournaments that gives you a lot of leverage on the field as well as kills a lot of Cooper LUs.
Underdog play of the week – Sean Strickland ($8,100)
Sean Strickland is the same price as his opponent Dos Santos on DraftKings but his opponent is the slight favorite at -135. This will make him the much more popular pick of the two and Strickland has a solid wrestling game that could get him a high scoring win here. I will not be all in on Strickland by any means but this is another spot you can gain some leverage on the field if he does pull out the win.
Fade of the week – Lyoto Machida ($8,900)
This one could come back to bite me but I will have a full fade on Machida here. Yes, he could get a 1st round knockout and score over 100 points and if that happens I will be in some trouble. But, this could also be a snooze fest with these two old guys circling the cage and giving each other too much respect and not engaging in a wild fist fight. That is what I am banking on or even hoping Belfort can get the KO himself. With Machida being priced at 8.9k I would want at least 89 points to feel comfortable rostering him but lately he is too comfortable with playing defense and avoiding his opponent. He had 5 rounds to work with in his last fight against Anders and he only scored 61 points in a win. I would rather spend my salary elsewhere and avoid a possible ~40 decision win from him and hope it pays off.