Big Marley’s UFC 222 DraftKings Fantasy Breakdown
If you are just starting out in Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = Head to Heads (H2Hs), 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
Significant Strikes +0.5 Pts
Advance +3 Pts
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts
There is a lot of money to be won this week on DraftKings because they like to break out the big tournaments for the UFC PPV’s so let’s take advantage of it and hopefully hit big this weekend. Since there are bigger prizes to be won this week I think I will personally invest more in the GPPs this week and try to hit a big score instead of mainly playing the cash games. However, I do always want enough cash action to potentially cover my GPP losses if I am not successful in hitting that big score. With that said, here are a few plays I like for UFC 222:
Cash Game play of the week – Mackenzie Dern ($9,000)
Dern comes in this week as the 4th most expensive fighter at $9k on DraftKings. Usually when Cyborg is on a card she is a cash lock but this week they have her at $9.7k and I think that is the highest salary we have seen since DK started using the 6-fighter format. With her at that super high salary I think we might have to look elsewhere this week and I think Dern is the way to do it. As I just mentioned, Dern is the 4th most expensive fighter on DK but she has the 2nd best betting odds on the card at -425. In cash games that is where you want to find the value and the betting lines are a great place for that. Dern also has an ITD betting line of -164 so that tells me the likely route in this fight is Dern getting this fight to the ground and pulling of a submission. With that we get hopefully takedown points, as well as a few strikes, and the finishing points and those should add up to a decent score while giving you a safe favorite as well.
GPP play of the week – Hector Lombard ($8,400)
This is purely a GPP play. A boom or bust play if you will. With Lombard coming off 4 straight losses and still being the favorite in this fight we should see fairly low ownership associated with him in tournaments and it could pay off big if he can get the early finish. C.B. Dollaway does not have the best chin and Lombard still has crazy power. I could see Lombard getting at least 1 knock down in this fight and possibly getting a 1st round KO finish so if that happens I think he does end up on the winning lineup and I will be taking a few GPP shots on him for that reason.
Underdog play of the week – Andrei Arlovski ($7,400)
Heavyweights are always decent underdog picks in DraftKings because you have to get underdogs in your lineups and with the big boys you only need one punch sometimes to get the win. I don’t love many underdogs this weekend but I still need them to fill out my lineups and that is why Arlovski will be one of my favorite names to pick sub $8k. If he can go out there and land a heavy punch on Struve early in the 1st then this fight might not last long and Ardrei could end up with 100+ points at a $7.4k price tag on DK and if that happens he will end up on the “nuts” lineup.
Fade of the week – Bryan Caraway ($7,700)
The one person I am pretty sure won’t make any of my lineups will be Caraway. It has been a while since we have seen him in the Octagon and now he is matched up against a similar style fighter. When Caraway does well in fights it is usually because he is the better wrestler and he is able to get the fight where he wants it. I personally think Stamann is the better wrestler of the two and will be able to keep this fight standing if he is having success there. In Caraway’s last two wins he scored 65 points and 61 points so with those low winning scores and me thinking he loses this fight that is what makes him my personal fade of the week.