Big Marley’s UFC on FOX 28 Draft Kings Fantasy Breakdown
If you are just starting out in Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = Head to Heads (H2Hs), 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
Significant Strikes +0.5 Pts
Advance +3 Pts
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts
There are not a lot of big prize pools this week on DraftKings but there is still money to be won. I personally like to make multiple GPP lineups to give myself more shots at those 1st place prizes and then I put the majority of my money into cash games hoping those profits can cover my GPP losses if I have a rough night. Everyone is different so the first thing I would try to figure out is if you are a cash game player or a GPP player and don’t waste your bankroll by entering too many contests you are not profitable in. The difference between cash games and GPPs is that you want a higher floor in cash games and a higher ceiling in GPPs. For example, in a 20-player 50/50 contest you get the same payout whether you are 1st place or 10th place, so you don’t need to get 6 wins to profit in that type of contest. In a GPP you almost always need 6 wins because those tournaments are very top heavy with their payouts and 1st place gets way more money than the last cashing spot. With that said, here are a few plays that I like on this UFC on FOX 28 fight card:
Cash Game play of the week – Jessica Andrade ($9,200)
My general thought for cash games is that if I can get 4 wins out of my 6 then I usually have a good chance at winning more H2Hs than I lose. I also like to pick fighters I think can 10x their salary. So, for this fight with Andrade being $9.2k I need her to be able to get at least 92 points in a win for her to make “value” at her salary. Even with 3 losses on her DraftKings Fight Log she still averages 87.3 DK points per fight. That is a very high average for the number of fights she has had and even in her losses she has scored in the 40s and 50s. Of the 7 wins on her Fight Log she has only scored less than 100 DK points two times so I don’t think she will struggle to hit that 92 points we will need this week against Tecia Torres ($7,000) assuming she does get the win. I think Andrade is too powerful on the feet and with her wrestling for Torres to get the best of her for 3 rounds and I don’t see Torres getting a finish in this fight. With 3 rounds of action I think Andrade is the safest DraftKings play on this card and she is only the third most expensive fighter on the slate.
GPP play of the week – Alan Jouban ($9,100)
I expect Andrade and Mike Perry to be the two most popular fighters in the higher salary range. I think Jouban has a great shot of winning this fight via KO and scoring just as many if not more points than both those higher priced fighters. In cash games, we don’t have to worry about fighter ownership as much but in these GPPs you want to try to be different than the field. If you pivot off Perry and Andrade and go to Jouban instead I think that separates you from the majority of the field and it leaves you with more salary to spend on other fighters. Both Jouban and his opponent Ben Saunders train at 10th Planet Jiu Jitsu so I am interested to see if this fight hits the ground at all. If it does stay standing I think Jouban has a good chance at knocking Saunders out within 15 minutes. I think his significant strikes + knockdowns and the win bonus will add up and he could be the highest scoring fighter on the card.
Underdog play of the week – Eric Shelton ($7,500)
Here is a perfect example on how you can use the betting lines to your advantage when creating a DraftKings lineup. Currently, Shelton is a +115 underdog on the betting line with his opponent Alex Perez sitting at -135. On DraftKings Shelton is priced at $7.5k which is significantly less than Perez at $8.7k. When I see a betting line that close and the salaries on DraftKings don’t match up that value play always becomes a favorite play of mine. I think Shelton has a good shot of winning this fight and I think we will see a back and forth decision. You must have underdogs in your lineups so I think Shelton is a perfect fighter to start your lineup with and figure the rest out after him.
Fade of the week – Sam Alvey ($7,200)
I like to make around 20 lineups each week in DraftKings so I typically have exposure to a lot of fighters and I’ve played cards where I use almost every fighter on the card in hopes of hitting the right combo. This week I will personally have zero lineups with Sam Alvey. Even as one of the cheapest fighters he could still score less than a losing fighter. As I mentioned earlier Andrade has put up 40s and 50s in losses before. In Sam Alvey’s last two wins he scored 50 points and 48 points. I don’t want that on my team even if he is cheap on DraftKings. You basically have to get the KO win with Alvey for him to score high because he is too willing to sit back and counter and the output just doesn’t add up in DK. If Alvey does get the 1st rd KO then I will just have to accept a losing week.