UFC Fight Night 125: Machida vs. Anders
Date: February 3
Arena: Arena Guilherme Paraense
City: Belem, Brazil
The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is headed to Belem, Brazil for the first time in promotional history with UFC Fight Night 125: Machida vs. Anders. The 12 fight card is scheduled to kick off with preliminary action on UFC Fight Pass at 7 p.m. ET and prelims will continue on FOX Sports 1 at 8 p., with the main card getting underway at 10 p.m. If interested in wagering on any bouts for these fight cards, all betting lines are made available at Several Bookmakers.
My Fights to AVOID betting are:
Lightweight bout: Alan Patrick (-230) vs. Damir Hadzovic (+190)
Gabe’s Thoughts: This is a classic ‘grappler versus striker’ in the UFC’s 155 pound division. The Brazilian will be looking to take the fight to the mat, while the Bosnian will be looking to keep it on the feet and implement his superior striking. I think Hadzovic holds some value at his current offering price of +190, however I don’t think it is quite enough to get me to pull the trigger on a play. I think he may need the finish to win, because even if he deserves a decision, I think there is a good chance that Patrick will walk away with a hometown call. If Hadzovic finds success in keeping the fight standing but fails to secure the finish, I see Patrick spending quite a bit of time pressing the action action against the cage and killing time off the clock. Hadzovic does hold some value here, but I think this is one that is best left skipping this Saturday night.
Gabe’s Call: Hadzovic by T/KO (strikes, 2:00 round 1)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID
Welterweight bout: Tim Means (-220) vs. Sergio Moraes (+180)
Gabe’s Thoughts: I think Means should be a 2-to-1 betting favorite heading into this welterweight contest, so I more-or-less agree with the current betting odds. I see no value in either fighter at the current odds to make a play. I like Means here, and favor him to win this fight by T/KO, however Moraes has a clear path to victory in this contest. He will have a massive edge on the mat, should he be able to take the fight there. Once there, it would be highly likely that he ends the fight via submission. As long as Means keeps this fight standing, it’s his to lose, but I am not confident he can pull it off. Coming off a T/KO loss to Kamaru Usman, Moraes will likely be fighting smart and looking to impose his grappling. At the current odds, I think this is a fight that is best left avoided at the sportsbook this weekend.
Gabe’s Call: Means by T/KO (strikes, 0:18 round 1)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID
